Prospective Strategique

Unit 5 (U5) “Foresight and Development” of interdisciplinary joint Greek-French Postgraduate Program "Population, Development, Foresight" organized in collaboration with the French University of Bordeaux IV, includes 4 courses (U5.3: Concepts & Tools, U5.4: Demographic foresight, U5.5 Territorial foresight - case study, U5.6: Sector foresight - case study). Although the curriculum includes four distinct courses, teaching is divided into three distinct modules (units): a) Concepts and tools, b) Demographic foresight and strategies c) Territorial and Sector foresight.

Objectives

The course and the respective units aim to: (a) to familiarize students with the concepts and methods of: - Foresight and policy making - Demographic foresight and policies - Spatial and sectoral foresight and policies (b) Special emphasis is given to the variety of approaches, methods and tools so that students acquire the relevant skills. Thus, during the lectures, considerable time is devoted to the presentation of case studies in order for students to fully understand the processes and tools while enable them to apply them to the preparation of their collective assignment, required for successful completion of the course. Thereby, acquiring the ability to formulate their assumptions and to organize and present their research in a comprehensible way. (c) developing highly specialized methods; the students acquire the necessary knowledge and skills and are able to carry out an original analysis and evaluation of a complex situation. They will become -up to a degree- self-reliant and autonomous in formulating strategic policies relating to demographic challenges and in formulating spatial/sectoral strategic policies at a local and regional scale based on foresight.

Prerequisites

Successful completion of units U1, U2, U3 & U4, of the Master Program "Population, Development, Foresight" (PοDePro)

Syllabus

The course includes: 1. Basic concepts and techniques of foresight. This is an introduction to the three subsequent sections which focus on three different areas: Demographic, Territorial and Sector Foresight. 2. Demographic foresight and case studies: - A case study (population of France in 2050 -Eurostat, INSEE) and critical analysis of main hypotheses and key findings. - The basic demographic variables that form corresponding sub-systems, their interplay, causes and impacts. In particular, the objective is to analyze past trends, to examine possible future pathways and risks e.g. potential disruption or reversal of trends. - The construction of scenarios and identify challenges and strategic policies. 3. Territorial and Sector foresight and case studies. - After a brief introduction of basic concepts of spatial and sector foresight, a variety of parameters are presented (actors / players, perimeter / geographical scales, timeframe, objectives, emerging issues), approaches and methods of spatial and sector foresight are discussed. - Special attention is given to the phase “zero” from a strategic perspective that aims to fully identify the examined issue, its corresponding framework and sub- areas. Also stresses the particularities of the "construction" of possible future development pathways and planning. - Lectures gradually showing the entire process: from the exploratory analysis perspective to the formulation of foresight and development strategy and planning. In particular, it will include: - The construction of the baseline scenario, based on foresight analysis, the formulation of basic assumptions (by focusing on the method of Abaque de Régnier) - The construction of possible scenarios of development and spatial planning in different time horizons under the prism of differentiated logic and dynamics (endogenous and / or exogenous). - The implementation of a strategic diagnostic (outlook) by applying different analytical frameworks and tools that facilitate the identification of challenges, their strategic implications and growth drivers. - The formulation of a strategic vision, strategic objectives and the necessary means for achieving the objectives.